CNN is running a story with the provocative title, Is America’s suburban dream collapsing into a nightmare? Its theme is familiar to those who have been aware of the climate crisis, the depletion of fossil fuels, and other converging problems, but has not often been addressed so explicitly in the conventional media. (ABC News’ plans to broadcast the documentary Earth 2100, which I recently discussed, provides a hint that this might be changing.)

The story presents claims that home foreclosures, energy costs, demographic trends, and other factors are pushing Americans from car-oriented suburban living toward walkable urban communities.

But achieving such a shift isn’t going to be easy.

CNN cites Christopher Leinberger, a professor of urban planning at the University of Michigan, who contends that 35 percent of the nation’s wealth has been devoted to building car-centered suburban areas. In recent years, the environmental, health, social and other costs of the suburban vision that was pursued after World War II have become clearer. Today, there is a growing desire for walkable neighborhoods, Leinberger has found.

There is also, however, a substantial premium that individuals or families must pay to live in walkable communities. The cost of homes in such communities tends to be 40 to 200 percent higher than in traditional suburban neighborhoods, Leinberger reports.

As the foreclosure rate rises and energy prices mount, what will happen to those who cannot afford to live in walkable neighborhoods? According to Arthur C. Nelson, the director of Virginia Tech’s Metropolitan Institute who is cited in the same CNN story, they will increasingly be consigned to out of the way McMansions, which they will share with other families:

“What is going to happen is lower and lower-middle income families squeezed out of downtown and glamorous suburban locations are going to be pushed economically into these McMansions at the suburban fringe,” said Nelson. “There will probably be 10 people living in one house.”

The article concludes with the observation that this is already apparent in some neighborhoods.

Those who contend that government should “stay out of our lives” would likely argue that we are simply witnessing the beauty of the free market. As energy prices rise, some individuals and families prefer to live in places where they can use less energy, and they consequently bid up the price of homes in such walkable areas. Suburban areas where regular driving is necessary become more affordable and attractive to individuals who are less committed to living in walkable communities. In such a story, it is all a matter of individual choice.

Of course, this story ignores the fact that the United States has subsidized car-centric suburban living to the detriment of people-oriented communities for decades. When we invest heavily in highways and conceal the full cost of oil consumption, we systematically make it harder for people to create or live in walkable communities compared to car-dependent suburbs.

Tools such as Walk Score, which Joe described in a previous blog post, reflect a growing appreciation for the benefits of living in walkable communities as well as a creative use of technology to inform and engage.

We also need to come together and take actions to adapt our communities to address the problems that we face, rather than simply leave each individuals to face them alone. The documentary A Convenient Truth on the innovative measures adopted by the people of Curitiba, Brazil shows how successful cities can be in fostering livable communities that promote economic, social, and environmental goals.

Urban planner Jan Gehl recently told the San Francisco Chronicle, “As the era of cheap oil comes to an end, you are going to see amazing changes over the next 10 to 15 years in how we get around our cities. You will certainly see dramatic improvements in public transportation. There will be a major change from car-oriented to more people-oriented cities.” As with any broad societal transformation, there will plenty of opportunities for entrepreneurs, innovators, and activists, whose work will be needed to bring about successes.

Evan

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