Imagining Earth 2100
I recently read a description of a project called Earth 2100 at Celsias. It asks “environmental enthusiasts, film makers and creative minds” to produce videos that depict what the consequences of the climate crisis, resource depletion, and population growth will be for the remainder of this century if we fail to act. ABC News plans to broadcast a two hour program on this subject in the fall of 2008, including selected videos submitted by visitors to the Earth 2100 website.
The website features the tagline, “To change our future, we must first imagine it.”
But what exactly must we imagine?
The Earth 2100 website features several “video briefings” illustrating factors that may shape the world in 2015. Future briefings will address the world’s state in 2050, 2070, and 2100. These briefings are intended in part to inform visitors who may wish to create videos of their own, which, according to ABC News’ requirements, should be first-person accounts that are one to three minutes long. The user-created videos should speak in the present tense about events in 2015 or one of years in the more distant future that will be covered in the broadcast.
ABC News provides a PDF that outlines a scenario for the U.S. in 2015 to which the videos that users create should conform. Among the trends identified are:
- Little progress on climate policy and global temperatures rising faster than expected;
- Energy shortages and increasing dependence on coal;
- Prolonged drought in the U.S. Southwest and tensions with Mexico over water;
- Poor crop yields in the Midwest, leading to food shortages, record high prices, and riots in many countries;
- Severe storms and wildfires leave thousands homeless and millions without power.
A few videos that appear to be examples of the kind of content ABC News is seeking can be seen on the site, but it does not appear possible to embed them. These examples include depictions of thieves siphoning gas from cars, high food prices in a supermarket, and a terrorist attack.
While it is certainly important to imagine the future, we are unlikely to live in a world in which gas and food prices rise precipitously, but our lives, including our work, living arrangements, and choices as consumers remain essentially as they are today. If the cost of a week’s supply of cat food has soared to $60 (as shown in one of the examples), don’t expect to find a well-stocked and orderly supermarket. If New York is regularly subjected to weather so severe that its mass transit systems no longer function, don’t expect that most people who work their today will retain their jobs, but simply have a harder time getting to the office. Such a world would no doubt be harder to depict accurately than one that is not fundamentally different from our own.
At the same time, we also need to be imagining the kind of future we want to achieve. Although the Earth 2100 project omits this positive vision, we must take up this challenge. As we do so, we must be aware not only of the impending crises we wish to avert, but of the deficiencies and injustices in our present world that we wish to change. Of course, dangers such as the climate crisis and the depletion of oil, water, and other resources are what make the impetus to act so strong. However, we should also recognize other chronic problems that we face today, including an economic race to the bottom, a food system that harms health, and ways of living that fail to satisfy our desire for community. As we consider what we must do to prevent the worst effects of the climate crisis and resource depletion, we should also take the time to envision ways of living that address many of the other chronic problems we face.
Evan
